The question asks to describe the process of predicting the probability of emergency situations and their development, based on the analysis of causes that led to such events in the past or may cause them in the present.
This definition refers to Risk Assessment or Emergency Preparedness.
Risk Assessment is the process of identifying potential hazards and analyzing the likelihood and consequences of those hazards occurring. This involves looking at past incidents and current factors to understand what could lead to an emergency.
Emergency Preparedness is the planning and preparation phase that aims to mitigate the impact of emergencies. It includes risk assessment as a foundational step.
Given the phrasing, the most direct answer is Risk Assessment, as it specifically focuses on the prediction and analysis of causes.
Answer: Risk Assessment